Posted 1/18/01 Predicting commodity price fluctuations Farm commodity prices usually fluctuate within a fairly predictable price range every year, says Extension educator Erlin Weness of the University of Minnesota Extension Service. In an average year, corn typically moves about 96 cents per bushel, while soybeans fluctuate about $1.40 per bushel, Weness says. Hogs typically fluctuate $20 per hundred during a year, while fed cattle fluctuate about $13. ěThese fluctuations provide farmers with opportunities to price their product during periods when prices are at higher levels,î Weness says. He has a chart showing the 10-year range in cash prices for corn, soybeans, market hogs and fed steers in southwestern Minnesota. You can check this and lots of other educational information on the home page of the U of M Southwest Research and Outreach Center at http://swroc.coafes.umn.edu. Or, contact your county office of the University of Minnesota Extension Service. Weness also has a price probability chart that shows the percentage of time that prices have been at or above a certain price. For example, corn has been at or above $2.50 per bushel 25 percent of the time in the past 27 years and 19 percent of the time in the past 10 years. Price increases in low-price years are shown in another chart. It shows the price increase that occurred in years when the fall cash price was under $2 for corn and $5 for soybeans. Weness says typical price increases from these lows were 69 cents for corn and $1.88 for soybeans. ěThe price increase in any one year can vary considerably from the average,î Weness says. ěPrices have a high probability of peaking in May, June or July.î ©Post Review