By MaryHelen Swanson

There could be pandemonium if there is a pandemic outbreak of influenza in East Central Minnesota.

There could be pandemonium, but here in Chisago County there are a lot of people planning for such an event in the hopes that we will be sufficiently prepared to deal with it, if it ever comes to pass.

On May 24, Public Health staff shared some of those plans with the county commissioners.

Public Health director Bette Friederichs gave some of the current pandemic flu assumptions.

It is being assumed that 30 percent of Minnesotans would contract the disease in an outbreak.

That equates to 1,544,000 statewide.

Based on Chisago Countyís 46,000 population, that would be 13,800 cases here alone.

The hospitalization rate statewide is expected to be 1-10 percent of the affected cases or 15,000-172,000.

In Chisago County that would be 138-1,380 cases needing hospital care.

Statewide the assumption is that the fatality rate would fall between .2 and 2 percent or 3,600-32,900.

That number in Chisago County would range from 28 deaths to 276.

In the event of a pandemic flu, the Governor of Minnesota is the state decision-maker.

Protective actions would take place including:

ï Schools and day care centers would be closed.

ï Large group gatherings would be cancelled.

ï People would be encouraged to limit exposure to others.

There could be a significant economic impact.

Commissioner Ben Montzka was awed by the potential impact on the economy.

If schools and day cares are closed, people would have to stay home to take care of their children.

The lack of workers in business in general could cause major issues. Businesses might be able to be open on their normal level.

Even going to the grocery store could be difficult. Particularly difficult for families who have been quarantined.

Friederichs said it would be overwhelming to think about the loss of 30 percent of the workforce or the community.

She said it would be good for businesses to consider a plan for operation in the event that 30 percent of their staff is not able to work.

Plans are being put into place at all government levels: local, state and federal.

Besides the protection actions mentioned earlier, plans need to include assurances of continuation of infrastructure and there needs to be decisions about the use of limited resources.

As an example, Friederichs noted there would be a limited number of ventilators at hospitals across the state.

Current goals of regional and local planning are to limit the spread of a disease, create and test plans and integrate non-health entities in the planning.

In addition, it would be necessary to establish community stockpiles and distribution systems.

Spokespersons would need to be identified and the public would need to be properly educated.

Partnerships would be important ñ between Homeland Security and Emergency Management, county and city emergency managers, schools, law enforcement/military, volunteer organizations, regional hospital coalitions, clinics, emergency medical services and the media.

These partners need to work together in the planning stage to address such issues as disease surveillance, clinical issues, infection control, health care planning and vaccine and antiviral agents.

The planning would even need to include such areas as communications, animal health collaboration, care of the deceased, and legal and ethical issues.

Regionally, hospitals need to work together to predict and plan for managing a surge in demand. In addition, plans must be in place on how to protect the workers and patients.

They need to look at off-site care facilities, such as schools or other places with large areas for setting up cots, kitchen facilities and multiple bathroom facilities.

Home care will be important, too, as medical facilities fill up.

Families may be quarantined if necessary. In that case, medical personnel may be calling them at least twice a day for updates and instructions.

Coordination of the calling system alone will be a major job.

Locally, the priorities for 2006 includes reviewing federal plans and plans from other states.

Minnesota will work to update and expand its emergency plans. Education and training will continue as well as public education.

And exercises are extremely important.

In Chisago County there have been tabletop exercises in preparation for such an emergency situation. That means that many agencies have gotten together to make plans for real emergency situations by working together.

A regional event has been planned for Aug. 9 at the Isanti County Fairgrounds with a test of the drive-through drug pick-up procedure.

The local level planning is so important, Friederichs told the commissioners, because in the
event of an actual pandemic,
it may be a case of ìyouíre on your ownî as the state and federal governments deal with an overwhelming situation.

Friederichs recommends that families who want to learn more about a pandemic flu event and personal protection check out several Web sites, particularly www.pandemicflu.gov. (see sidebar). She said they are all credible sites.

Some of the county commissioners may be participating in the Aug. 9 exercise in Isanti County.

Volunteers needed

The Public Health agencies from Pine, Isanti, Chisago, Kanabec, and Mille Lacs counties, along with the Mille LacsÝBand of Ojibwa, are planning, preparing and training staff for use in the case of a Public Health Emergency.

Staff from all Ýsix Public Health agencies have been working together for the past year to determine best practices to set up a mass dispensing clinic to distribute medication, if available.

The focus of the drill will also include a just in time staff training component, as well as practice on how to inform, educate and improve the general communitiesí ability to respond to a public health emergency.

Volunteers are needed to pose as patients at a simulated drive through mass dispensing site. Volunteers will need to have their own vehicle. Youths ages 15 to 17 must be accompanied by an adult. Youths under 15 are welcome, but must be accompanied by a parent.

If you would like more information about the East Central Region Public Health Emergency Response Drill, or if you are interested in volunteering,Ýplease contact Cathy Conrad in the Chisago County Public Health Department at (651) 213-5633.