By Patrick Tepoorten

In the absence of an operating levy, the North Branch Area School District has the dubious honor of being one of the lowest in per pupil funding in the state. Although slight increases to the state funding formula will improve the district's bottom line a bit, in order to see significantly more money from the state the district must see more students.

From the 2006 - 07 school year to the 2007 - 08 school year, the district actually saw a decrease in enrollment by about 100 students, which cost the district roughly $580,000 in state funds. Hopes that the trend of declining enrollment will turn around anytime soon, and with it a shrinking funding pool, are likely premature.

On Thursday, Nov. 8, the district's demographer, Hazel Reinhardt, presented the school board with a look at short and long-term predictions for enrollment, and it was not a pretty picture.

Starting in the 2003 - 04 school year, the district began losing students at a steady and increasing clip. In 03 - 04, enrollment shrunk by 1 percent, in 04 - 05, another 1.7 percent, in 05 - 06, another 2 percent, and in 06 - 07, another 2.6 percent. This year's decline of 103 students marks the continuation of the trend.

A look at grades, historically

A look at the district's enrollment history shows that kindergarten enrollment is less now (242) than it was in 1998 (251). It also shows that kindergarten enrollment peaked in 2003, at 280 students, and has been trending downward since. But, after hovering between the high 250s and the mid 260s, this year's kindergarten class decreased by 19 students. That is the largest decrease since 1999.

The history also shows that the district's largest classes are also its oldest classes. There is not a class over 300 students younger than the seventh grade. So, as large classes are replaced with smaller ones, the enrollment declines could be sharper than ever.

Where are the students?

There are many factors to consider when trying to figure out why the district is trending downward. On the positive side, the area considered to comprise the North Branch district is at least 10 percentage points ahead of the state average for households with persons under 18 years of age. But an increasing share of that pie is elsewhere in the county.

For instance, of the births in the county in 1992 - 93, about 49 percent were born in the North Branch district. Since 96 - 97 though, that percentage has been dwindling to the current 33.7 percent. Reinhardt speculated that growth patterns in the county have shifted southward, accounting for North Branch's shrinking percentage.

But growth patterns don't account for all of the declines. Other options account for a significant amount of students.

District students enrolled in non public schools, or home schools, increased sharply in 03 - 04 to 259 students, and is 245 students this year. As well, the margin between out-of-district students enrolled at North Branch, and in-district students enrolling elsewhere continues to increase, and not in North Branch's favor.

The district has a history of open enrollment net losses ranging from the low 20s to just over 50, but jumped to 108 this year.

At least some of the district's kindergarten losses are going to Trinity Christian School right down the street. It saw a jump from 26 to around 40 students (two are from outside the district), a gain of 14 students while the district lost 19. Trinity School Administrator Nichole Laven attributes the increase to "choices," and other changes at the school that may make it more attractive.

Two years ago, the school merged its pre-school program with its school, making it easier for parents to choose leaving their students at Trinity. As well, Trinity has added specialized teachers in music, Spanish, and computer classes, and offers both all-day and half-day kindergarten, a change it enacted just this school year.

What does the future hold?

It depends on how far out one looks. In the short term, North Branch is expected to continue to see declines. With large classes set to graduate in the coming years, slow growth in the area, and trends favoring students leaving the district, the next four years could be tough for North Branch.

Using a host of variables, including low and high assumptions for kindergarten enrollment and "in migration" as well as housing formulas, Reinhardt concluded that, by 2011, the district could see enrollment ranging from 3,484 to 3,791. The former, over 200 less than the current enrollment of 3,694, and the latter (which includes the most liberal of assumptions) less than a hundred more. She warned, "unless more people move in, you can see what is likely to happen; declines."

If the long-term shows the possibility of a recovery, it is only that at this time. Using the same formulas, Reinhardt predicted the district will surpass 4,000 students by 2015 - 16 given more liberal estimates. But, by more conservative estimates, the district could still be below current enrollment at that time.

The bottom line for Reinhardt was, the farther out the study goes, the harder it is to predict the future. And, sure enough, the 2007 study shows drastic differences in long-term future enrollment than a similar study performed by Reinhardt just three years ago. At that time, even the most conservative estimates had the district with more students than it currently enrolls, and long-term future enrollment predictions have shrunk by hundreds of students.

In the absence of an operating levy the district is wholly reliant on the state for operating capital. As enrollment goes, so goes funding. That makes growth the key factor in annual budgets.

"If the community isn't growing, the school district is going to be in a lot of trouble," said district Finance Director Randi Johnson, who noted on Tuesday that growth in previous years has allowed the district to handle other funding challenges the state has presented. But now, without that growth, the district can no longer rely on its year's end fund balance to mitigate the next year's challenges. "The problems of the past are compounded when we have declining enrollment," she concluded.

Still, Johnson remains optimistic. "Nobody believes that the mortgage crisis is going to last forever," she said. As well, economies turn around, and Johnson believes that, when it does, the district will resume a pattern of growth, albeit not likely as fast as in previous years.

Comment from terry, 11/15/07

There are two main factors that were not mentioned in this story,
1st) property taxes are way to high.
2nd) there are no jobs that pay enough to make a house payment. you can't make a house payment on $7.50 an hour.
Most people are commuting as it is and with no job opportunities in north branch they will continue to move toward the city. i do not forsee the levels in the school enrollment going up anytime soon, and i don't suggest they try and raise our property taxes either or it will speed up the migration.

Comment from Rodney Reisnouer, 11/26/07

The students and community of North Branch continue to live district education between a rock and a hard place. The economy will eventually turn around but the bottom line is that the quality and quantity of educational services provided (not the quality of the educators)will depend on student growth. Senator Olseen and Representative Kalin, where are you? Educational funding in the state of Minnesota is unfair at best. Who is going to carry the torch on this issue? I would enjoy hearing what is being done about this unfairness. This is not just a North Branch issue, what is the legislature doing to provide equality in educational services?